National Human Development Report on Population Dynamics
UNDP and UNFPA in Serbia are preparing a National Human Development Report focused on demographic trends, gathering a group of domestic and international experts to work on various dimensions of current demographic change. The NHDR has two underlying themes. Depopulation is understood as an inevitable, though not necessarily a catastrophic trend. Serbian society would need to adapt to it in at least two ways: (1) By building its existing human capital and enabling every individual to be fully and productively integrated in society, particularly those that are at the margin of economic progress and public policies, and (2) By adjusting public policies across a wide range of sectors to the new demographic reality.
The NHDR aims to offer a new policy paradigm on demographic trends, one that would include pro-natalist but also other policies relevant for building human capital and adjusting to a less populous and older, but more educated and productive society. It offers policy options and proposals and contours of a new policy discourse on depopulation. It contains nine chapters as follows.
Wolfgang Lutz and Nicholas Gailey analyze global population dynamics showing that depopulation is not a unique historical experience: it occurred in earlier periods and it need not imply doom for the future. They warn on the role and responsibility of EU countries who attract labor from Serbia and other countries of the region. This process may undermine the long-term economic and social development of the Balkan region.
Vladimir Nikitović analyzes demographic trends in Serbia, showing that in any scenario, fertility rates will not increase enough to compensate for population losses. Therefore, an active immigration policy is most likely Serbia’s future. He also shows that depopulation in Serbia has subnational dynamics. While more developed parts of the country are facing population increase, depopulation is markedly a characteristic of less developed ones. He calculates regional Human Development Indices to show deep inequalities that drive internal migrations and depopulation.
Mihail Arandarenko analyzes migration and labor markets in the EU and Serbia. He demonstrates several shifts in migration patterns: from Western Europe to Eastern and Central Europe; from low- and high-skill to medium-skill emigration; from family reunification to work migration and from longer-term to circular patterns of emigration. The Serbian labor market is characterized by duality and lower wages, especially for low- and medium-skilled workers in the private sector, and these are key factor of labor migrations. The lengthy school-to-work transition and a low general level of good-job creation in the country further contribute to migration flows.
Dragan Stanojević is analyzing population dynamics from the family life perspective. Low-paid insecure jobs often occupied by women are a barrier to increasing fertility. Job security and stable income, along with independent housing, are key factors in deciding to start a family and have children, and these expectations are more pronounced with increasing levels of youth education. The Serbian work culture, as well as childcare facilities, are less than family and parent friendly. Gender, parenting and family related values are incoherent, while there is a pronounced gender disbalance related to childbearing and housekeeping work. From the family perspective, Serbia’s society appears less than friendly and supportive (although it highly values family life as such).
Dragica Pavlović Babić is working on human capital, analyzing how the educational system is adapting to demographic trends and what would be the desired directions for its future development. She shows the education system’s response to a shrinking student population and new demands on the labor market, particularly discussing de-concentration and regional dispersion of educational institutions.
Branislav Antonić is analyzing the future of Serbia’s cities. He shows that mid-sized cities are key for future demographic and socio-economic development of the country. Geographic position, infrastructure and urban planning play a crucial role in tackling depopulation. Some locations in Serbia are already adjusting to new demographics and these sites are used as experimentation resources in his analysis. His analysis points to various clusters of urban centers and policies adjusted to them.
Gordana Matković is focused on ageing. She concludes that the biggest challenge is the increase in the number and share of the "oldest old" (80+). She is positive that institutional innovations and adjustments have the potential to mitigate negative aspects of population ageing. She discusses in detail possible policy responses (options) in the fields of social protection, health and pension systems.
Željka Stamenković is analyzing health indicators and potential healthcare system responses to demographic trends. She discusses health related factors behind low fertility and high mortality. The role of healthcare and educational institutions as well as public administration is crucial in mitigating various health related risks. Learning from our past and from comparative experiences, she provides a list of possible policy options for future social dialogues.
Jelisaveta Petrović links current demographic trends to climate change and environmental degradation. She analyzes various climate change and environmental (particularly air pollution) scenarios and the possible impacts on the three components of depopulation - mortality, birth rate and migration. She is focused on the socio-economic consequences of climate change and air pollution and links social and environmental science to detect the magnitude and structure of the problem as well as to provide possible policy options.